Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Atlanta Braves a 52% chance of beating the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park, with a projected score of ATL 5.0, MIA 4.6 and about 9.6 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
Brent Suter (LHP, ATL) projects to strike out 19.3% and put on 7.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 3.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .314 xwOBA against him. Jack Ralston (RHP, MIA) projects to strike out 23.5% and put on 10.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings.
ATL's bullpen has 78% of its usual relief work rested (123 weighted pitches over the last three days); Didier Fuentes, Grant Holmes are likely unavailable. MIA's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (31 weighted pitches over the last three days).
loanDepot park plays 2% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Clint Vondrak has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for ATL the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for MIA the biggest factor is opposing starter (+6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | ATL 52% · MIA 48% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | ATL 5.0 – 4.6 MIA |
| Projected total runs | 9.6 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| ATL starter | Brent Suter (LHP): projected 19.3% strikeouts, 7.4% walks + HBP, 3.6 innings |
| MIA starter | Jack Ralston (RHP): projected 23.5% strikeouts, 10.3% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | loanDepot park (run factor -1.7%) |
Atlanta Braves · Miami Marlins · Brent Suter · Jack Ralston
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