Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Atlanta Braves a 51% chance of beating the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park, with a projected score of ATL 4.5, MIA 4.2 and about 8.7 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Ray Kerr (LHP, ATL) projects to strike out 24.5% and put on 8.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Eury Pérez (RHP, MIA) projects to strike out 26.3% and put on 10.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .281 xwOBA against him.
ATL's bullpen has 82% of its usual relief work rested (112 weighted pitches over the last three days); AJ Smith-Shawver is likely unavailable. MIA's bullpen has 76% of its usual relief work rested (114 weighted pitches over the last three days); Josh Ekness is likely unavailable.
loanDepot park plays 2% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Adam Hamari has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for ATL the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for MIA the biggest factor is team run form (-2% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | ATL 51% · MIA 49% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | ATL 4.5 – 4.2 MIA |
| Projected total runs | 8.7 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| ATL starter | Ray Kerr (LHP): projected 24.5% strikeouts, 8.8% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| MIA starter | Eury Pérez (RHP): projected 26.3% strikeouts, 10.8% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| Ballpark | loanDepot park (run factor -1.6%) |
Atlanta Braves · Miami Marlins · Ray Kerr · Eury Pérez
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.