Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Kansas City Royals a 52% chance of beating the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium, with a projected score of CLE 4.2, KC 4.1 and about 8.4 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Tanner Bibee (RHP, CLE) projects to strike out 21.7% and put on 8.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .297 xwOBA against him. Michael Wacha (RHP, KC) projects to strike out 19.5% and put on 7.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .316 xwOBA against him.
CLE's bullpen has 60% of its usual relief work rested (176 weighted pitches over the last three days); Erik Sabrowski, Hunter Gaddis are likely unavailable. KC's bullpen has 73% of its usual relief work rested (166 weighted pitches over the last three days); Lucas Erceg, Nolan Hoffman are likely unavailable.
Kauffman Stadium plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 74°F with 5 mph wind; John Libka has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CLE the biggest factor is opposing starter (-3% to their expected runs) and for KC the biggest factor is team run form (-5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CLE 48% · KC 52% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CLE 4.2 – 4.1 KC |
| Projected total runs | 8.4 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| CLE starter | Tanner Bibee (RHP): projected 21.7% strikeouts, 8.5% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| KC starter | Michael Wacha (RHP): projected 19.5% strikeouts, 7.8% walks + HBP, 5.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Kauffman Stadium (run factor +2.4%) |
Cleveland Guardians · Kansas City Royals · Tanner Bibee · Michael Wacha
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