Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Pittsburgh Pirates a 52% chance of beating the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park, with a projected score of PIT 4.5, DET 4.1 and about 8.7 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Jared Jones (RHP, PIT) projects to strike out 27.4% and put on 8.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. River Ryan (RHP, DET) projects to strike out 22.3% and put on 10.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings.
PIT's bullpen has 59% of its usual relief work rested (197 weighted pitches over the last three days); Yohan Ramírez, Evan Sisk, Carmen Mlodzinski are likely unavailable. DET's bullpen has 82% of its usual relief work rested (81 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Comerica Park plays 4% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 76°F with 8 mph wind; Tyler Jones has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for PIT the biggest factor is opposing starter (+7% to their expected runs) and for DET the biggest factor is opposing starter (-8% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | PIT 52% · DET 48% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | PIT 4.5 – 4.1 DET |
| Projected total runs | 8.7 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| PIT starter | Jared Jones (RHP): projected 27.4% strikeouts, 8.8% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| DET starter | River Ryan (RHP): projected 22.3% strikeouts, 10.2% walks + HBP, 4.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Comerica Park (run factor -3.5%) |
Pittsburgh Pirates · Detroit Tigers · Jared Jones · River Ryan
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