Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Pittsburgh Pirates a 50% chance of beating the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park, with a projected score of PIT 4.3, DET 4.0 and about 8.3 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Kirby Yates (RHP, PIT) projects to strike out 30.0% and put on 11.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .318 xwOBA against him. Justin Verlander (RHP, DET) projects to strike out 19.9% and put on 8.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .319 xwOBA against him.
PIT's bullpen has 85% of its usual relief work rested (142 weighted pitches over the last three days); Wilber Dotel, Evan Sisk are likely unavailable. DET's bullpen has 82% of its usual relief work rested (80 weighted pitches over the last three days); Andrew Sears is likely unavailable.
Comerica Park plays 3% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 70°F with 8 mph wind; Laz Diaz has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for PIT the biggest factor is team run form (-4% to their expected runs) and for DET the biggest factor is opposing starter (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | PIT 50% · DET 50% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | PIT 4.3 – 4.0 DET |
| Projected total runs | 8.3 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| PIT starter | Kirby Yates (RHP): projected 30.0% strikeouts, 11.9% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| DET starter | Justin Verlander (RHP): projected 19.9% strikeouts, 8.9% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| Ballpark | Comerica Park (run factor -3.4%) |
Pittsburgh Pirates · Detroit Tigers · Kirby Yates · Justin Verlander
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