Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Detroit Tigers a 53% chance of beating the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park, with a projected score of PIT 4.3, DET 4.3 and about 8.6 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Bubba Chandler (RHP, PIT) projects to strike out 21.6% and put on 11.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .298 xwOBA against him. Jackson Jobe (RHP, DET) projects to strike out 20.8% and put on 11.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .340 xwOBA against him.
PIT's bullpen has 81% of its usual relief work rested (124 weighted pitches over the last three days). DET's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (34 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Comerica Park plays 4% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 63°F with 5 mph wind; Jonathan Parra has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for PIT the biggest factor is opposing starter (+5% to their expected runs) and for DET the biggest factor is weather (-4% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | PIT 47% · DET 53% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | PIT 4.3 – 4.3 DET |
| Projected total runs | 8.6 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| PIT starter | Bubba Chandler (RHP): projected 21.6% strikeouts, 11.3% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| DET starter | Jackson Jobe (RHP): projected 20.8% strikeouts, 11.3% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| Ballpark | Comerica Park (run factor -3.6%) |
Pittsburgh Pirates · Detroit Tigers · Bubba Chandler · Jackson Jobe
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