Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies projection, 2026-09-24
The model gives the Arizona Diamondbacks a 61% chance of beating the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, with a projected score of AZ 6.3, COL 4.7 and about 11.0 total runs. There is a 25% chance the game is decided by one run.
Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, AZ) projects to strike out 20.0% and put on 8.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .328 xwOBA against him. Tanner Gordon (RHP, COL) projects to strike out 18.5% and put on 5.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.7 innings. Last season hitters managed a .368 xwOBA against him.
AZ's bullpen has 76% of its usual relief work rested (58 weighted pitches over the last three days); Juan Morillo is likely unavailable. COL's bullpen has 85% of its usual relief work rested (74 weighted pitches over the last three days); Mark Manfredi is likely unavailable.
Coors Field plays 21% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 70°F with 8 mph wind; Charlie Ramos has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for AZ the biggest factor is ballpark (+16% to their expected runs) and for COL the biggest factor is ballpark (+16% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | AZ 61% · COL 39% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | AZ 6.3 – 4.7 COL |
| Projected total runs | 11.0 |
| One-run game | 25% |
| AZ starter | Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP): projected 20.0% strikeouts, 8.7% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| COL starter | Tanner Gordon (RHP): projected 18.5% strikeouts, 5.9% walks + HBP, 4.7 innings |
| Ballpark | Coors Field (run factor +21.3%) |
Arizona Diamondbacks · Colorado Rockies · Eduardo Rodriguez · Tanner Gordon
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