Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Chicago White Sox a 61% chance of beating the Colorado Rockies at Rate Field, with a projected score of COL 4.4, CWS 5.2 and about 9.6 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
Jose Quintana (LHP, COL) projects to strike out 16.6% and put on 10.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .349 xwOBA against him. Davis Martin (RHP, CWS) projects to strike out 19.1% and put on 9.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .347 xwOBA against him.
COL's bullpen has 81% of its usual relief work rested (79 weighted pitches over the last three days); Juan Mejia is likely unavailable. CWS's bullpen has 86% of its usual relief work rested (108 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Rate Field plays 2% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 64°F with 8 mph wind; Shane Livensparger has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for COL the biggest factor is opposing starter (+4% to their expected runs) and for CWS the biggest factor is team run form (+11% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | COL 39% · CWS 61% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | COL 4.4 – 5.2 CWS |
| Projected total runs | 9.6 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| COL starter | Jose Quintana (LHP): projected 16.6% strikeouts, 10.2% walks + HBP, 4.5 innings |
| CWS starter | Davis Martin (RHP): projected 19.1% strikeouts, 9.6% walks + HBP, 4.6 innings |
| Ballpark | Rate Field (run factor -1.7%) |
Colorado Rockies · Chicago White Sox · Jose Quintana · Davis Martin
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