Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Chicago White Sox a 65% chance of beating the Colorado Rockies at Rate Field, with a projected score of COL 4.0, CWS 5.3 and about 9.3 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP, COL) projects to strike out 15.3% and put on 6.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .366 xwOBA against him. Sean Burke (RHP, CWS) projects to strike out 24.3% and put on 10.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .341 xwOBA against him.
COL's bullpen has 72% of its usual relief work rested (131 weighted pitches over the last three days); Jimmy Herget is likely unavailable. CWS's bullpen has 90% of its usual relief work rested (140 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Rate Field plays 2% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 63°F with 6 mph wind; Mark Ripperger has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for COL the biggest factor is weather (-5% to their expected runs) and for CWS the biggest factor is team run form (+11% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | COL 35% · CWS 65% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | COL 4.0 – 5.3 CWS |
| Projected total runs | 9.3 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| COL starter | Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP): projected 15.3% strikeouts, 6.8% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| CWS starter | Sean Burke (RHP): projected 24.3% strikeouts, 10.7% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| Ballpark | Rate Field (run factor -1.6%) |
Colorado Rockies · Chicago White Sox · Tomoyuki Sugano · Sean Burke
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