Houston Astros at Athletics projection, 2026-09-24

The model gives the Houston Astros a 57% chance of beating the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, with a projected score of HOU 6.2, ATH 5.1 and about 11.3 total runs. There is a 25% chance the game is decided by one run.

Peter Lambert (RHP, HOU) projects to strike out 21.2% and put on 10.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Mason Barnett (RHP, ATH) projects to strike out 20.0% and put on 12.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .307 xwOBA against him.

HOU's bullpen has 64% of its usual relief work rested (177 weighted pitches over the last three days); Josh Hader, Josh Hendrickson, AJ Blubaugh are likely unavailable. ATH's bullpen has 66% of its usual relief work rested (132 weighted pitches over the last three days); Luis Medina, Hogan Harris are likely unavailable.

Sutter Health Park plays 12% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 87°F with 6 mph wind; John Tumpane has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for HOU the biggest factor is ballpark (+9% to their expected runs) and for ATH the biggest factor is ballpark (+9% to their expected runs).

Houston Astros · Athletics · Peter Lambert · Mason Barnett

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