Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers projection, 2026-10-12
The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 54% chance of beating the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Championship Series at American Family Field, with a projected score of LAD 4.3, MIL 3.8 and about 8.1 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, LAD) projects to strike out 26.9% and put on 7.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 6.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .258 xwOBA against him. The Milwaukee Brewers have not named a starter yet; until they do, the model assumes Logan Henderson, their best rotation starter on full rest.
LAD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).
American Family Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 84°F with 10 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for LAD the biggest factor is lineup quality (+15% to their expected runs) and for MIL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-13% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAD 54% · MIL 46% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAD 4.3 – 3.8 MIL |
| Projected total runs | 8.1 |
| One-run game | 32% |
| LAD starter | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP): projected 26.9% strikeouts, 7.9% walks + HBP, 6.1 innings |
| MIL starter | starter not announced |
| Ballpark | American Family Field (run factor -2.8%) |
Los Angeles Dodgers · Milwaukee Brewers · Yoshinobu Yamamoto
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