Cavaliers vs Bucks Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks · Sat, Oct 31, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 31, 2026 prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers over the Bucks by 5.1 points, a 66% win probability, with a projected final of Cavaliers 117, Bucks 112 (total 229.6).
The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 5.1 points (66% win probability), projected score MIL 112, CLE 117, total 229.6 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.3 points toward CLE).
Matchup
Cleveland Cavaliers rank 7 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.0 points against an average opponent, about 49 projected wins in 2026-27); Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 (−4.7, about 28 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 7.7 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.1-point margin above. A 66% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (MIL margin)
- Player box-score production: −3.3 (MIL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.5 (MIL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.9 (MIL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.9 (MIL margin)
Rest and travel
CLE: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 669 miles of travel. MIL: 2 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
CLE: Evan Mobley 33, Donovan Mitchell 32, James Harden 31, Peyton Watson 27, Jarrett Allen 26, Mario Hezonja 23, Sam Merrill 20, Jaylon Tyson 18, Tyrese Proctor 8.
MIL: Tyler Herro 29, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27, Kyle Kuzma 26, Ryan Rollins 26, Kasparas Jakucionis 22, Myles Turner 22, AJ Green 18, Kel'el Ware 16, Brayden Burries 13.
Four factors
| CLE (2025-26) | MIL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.1 | 110.3 |
| DRtg | 112.1 | 116.5 |
| Pace | 102.6 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 21.1% |
| FT rate | 0.265 | 0.223 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 55.8% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 31, 2026 · Milwaukee Bucks · Cleveland Cavaliers · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.