NBA trends
4,922 regular-season games, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26, graded against the closing consensus line: underdogs won 32%, favourites covered 50%, overs 51%.
By month
| Games | Upsets | Fav covers | Overs | Avg total |
|---|
| October | 307 | 36% | 45% | 54% | 228.3 |
| November | 881 | 31% | 49% | 51% | 228.3 |
| December | 820 | 35% | 48% | 52% | 230.9 |
| January | 913 | 33% | 50% | 46% | 228.9 |
| February | 679 | 30% | 53% | 49% | 229.1 |
| March | 936 | 29% | 51% | 50% | 228.6 |
| April | 386 | 25% | 54% | 58% | 230 |
By size of the favourite
| Games | Upsets | Fav covers | Overs | Avg total |
|---|
| Favourite by Pick'em to 3 | 1162 | 46% | 48% | 46% | 227.4 |
| Favourite by 3.5–6.5 | 1728 | 36% | 50% | 53% | 229.7 |
| Favourite by 7–9.5 | 964 | 23% | 52% | 50% | 229.4 |
| Favourite by 10–13.5 | 755 | 19% | 49% | 51% | 229.6 |
| Favourite by 14+ | 294 | 7% | 55% | 54% | 231 |
By situation
| Games | Upsets | Fav covers | Overs | Avg total |
|---|
| Favourite on a back-to-back | 719 | 32% | 51% | 52% | 229.1 |
| Underdog on a back-to-back | 993 | 28% | 52% | 51% | 228.7 |
| Rested favourite vs dog on a back-to-back | 741 | 29% | 51% | 51% | 229 |
| Rested dog vs favourite on a back-to-back | 467 | 35% | 48% | 53% | 229.7 |
| Road favourite | 1914 | 34% | 50% | 51% | 229.1 |
| Visitor at altitude | 312 | 32% | 47% | 56% | 235.4 |
| Favourite missing a 24+ minute player | 385 | 37% | 48% | 54% | 227.3 |
| Underdog missing a 24+ minute player | 699 | 27% | 49% | 50% | 228.3 |
| Favourite off a 15+ point loss | 535 | 31% | 53% | 52% | 230.1 |
| Underdog on a 3+ game losing streak | 1143 | 28% | 50% | 50% | 229.9 |
Badge records
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.