Badge & pattern records

Every badge graded against the closing consensus line, next to its typical rate. Discovery 2022-23 + 2023-24, validation 2024-25, held out 2025-26; live 2026-27.

Game tags

• Coin flip → dog_win: 588-820 (42%), typical 43%
• Upset alert → dog_win: 270-483 (36%), typical 35%
• Favorite holds → fav_win: 376-54 (87%), typical 87%
• Blowout brewing → fav_cover: 312-287 (52%), typical 50%
• Leans high scoring → over: 731-763 (49%), typical 50%
• Leans low scoring → under: 386-415 (48%), typical 50%

Stat alerts

• High scoring alert → over: 215-218 (50%), typical 50%
• Low scoring alert → under: 181-220 (45%), typical 50%
• Blowout alert → fav_cover: 338-312 (52%), typical 50%
• Upset alert (stats) → dog_win: 201-396 (34%), typical 35%

Study patterns

• Moderate · Favourite 2+ straight overs + Spread 0–3 → under: 184-109 (63%), typical 50%
• Moderate · Favourite top 10 in offence + Spread 0–3 → under: 293-194 (60%), typical 50%
• Moderate · Underdog top 10 in shooting (eFG%) + Favourite covered its last game → dog_win: 255-337 (43%), typical 36%
• Lean · Favourite top 10 in 3-point volume + We like the underdog by 3+ more than the line → dog_win: 142-242 (37%), typical 29%
• Lean · Underdog bottom 10 in shooting (eFG%) + Favourite top 10 in offensive rebounding → fav_cover: 428-338 (56%), typical 50%

Underdog spots

• Strong · Underdog top 10 in shooting (eFG%) + Underdog failed to cover its last game → dog_win: 223-296 (43%), typical 36%
• Moderate · Underdog top 10 in shooting (eFG%) + We like the underdog by 3+ more than the line → dog_win: 136-178 (43%), typical 35%

Season combos

• holds up · Underdog bottom 10 in net rating + Rebound edge (matchup signal) → fav_win: 80-11 (88%), typical 77%
• holds up · Underdog failed to cover 3+ straight + Favourite top 10 in offensive rebounding → fav_win: 64-12 (84%), typical 71%
• weak · Underdog failed to cover 3+ straight + Favourite off a win → fav_win: 85-20 (81%), typical 72%
• weak · Underdog bottom 10 in free-throw rate + Favourite bottom 10 in forcing turnovers → fav_win: 95-30 (76%), typical 69%
• holds up · Underdog bottom-10 pace (slow) + Favourite top 10 in 3-point defence → dog_cover: 92-46 (67%), typical 50%
• holds up · Favourite top-10 pace (fast) + Favourite winning 60%+ of its games → dog_cover: 40-12 (77%), typical 50%
• holds up · Underdog on a 3+ game losing streak + Blowout alert (stat alert) → over: 64-31 (67%), typical 50%
• weak · Underdog top 10 in 3-point defence + Rebound edge (matchup signal) → fav_win: 58-20 (74%), typical 66%
• holds up · Favourite bottom 10 in ball security + Favourite top 10 in 3-point defence → dog_cover: 84-45 (65%), typical 50%
• holds up · Underdog bottom 10 in ball security + Line moved 1.5+ toward the favourite → over: 74-37 (67%), typical 50%
• holds up · Favourite bottom 10 in defensive rebounding + Mismatch (matchup signal) → under: 34-13 (72%), typical 50%
• holds up · Underdog playing a 4th game in 7 days + Favourite bottom-10 pace (slow) → fav_cover: 88-51 (63%), typical 50%
• holds up · Favourite top 10 in offence + Spread 0–3 → under: 68-37 (65%), typical 50%
• holds up · Underdog bottom 10 in shooting defence + Underdog top 10 in ball security → under: 60-31 (66%), typical 50%
• holds up · Favourite 2+ straight overs + Leans high scoring (game tag) → dog_cover: 59-31 (66%), typical 50%

Chip patterns (watched live)

• card · Low scoring alert (stat alert) + Pace clash (matchup signal) → over: 40-20 (67%), typical 50%
• card · Turnover battle (matchup signal) + Upset alert (game tag) → over: 52-29 (64%), typical 50%
• card · Defensive battle (matchup signal) + Leans high scoring (game tag) → fav_cover: 46-25 (65%), typical 50%
• card · Rebound edge (matchup signal) + 3-point variance game (matchup signal) → over: 43-24 (64%), typical 50%
• card · Blowout alert (stat alert) + Our total 4+ below the line → fav_win: 88-10 (90%), typical 80%
• card · Low scoring alert (stat alert) + Defensive battle (matchup signal) → over: 73-47 (61%), typical 50%
• card · Pace clash (matchup signal) + Leans low scoring (game tag) → dog_win: 52-71 (42%), typical 32%
• card · Free-throw fest (matchup signal) + Mismatch (matchup signal) → fav_cover: 41-24 (63%), typical 50%
• card · Turnover battle (matchup signal) + Coin flip (game tag) → over: 99-69 (59%), typical 50%
• card · Slow game (matchup signal) + 3-point variance game (matchup signal) → under: 67-44 (60%), typical 50%
• card · Our total 4+ below the line + Upset alert (game tag) → over: 59-38 (61%), typical 50%
• card · Home dog, better defence (matchup signal) + Upset alert (game tag) → dog_cover: 60-39 (61%), typical 50%
• card · Star out (matchup signal) + Leans low scoring (game tag) → under: 114-82 (58%), typical 50%
• card · Upset alert (game tag) → over: 413-336 (55%), typical 50%
• card · Rebound edge (matchup signal) + Favorite holds (game tag) → over: 45-28 (62%), typical 50%
• card · Star out (matchup signal) + Upset alert (game tag) → fav_win: 108-37 (74%), typical 66%

Undefeated / elite finder

15 discovery candidates from 2,639 games, 5 survivor(s) after the line guard and held-out validation; the same pipeline on shuffled results leaves 0.4 per run by chance (40-run permutation baseline).

• elite · Underdog winning under 40% of its games + Line moved 1.5+ toward the favourite + Mismatch (matchup signal) → fav_win: 46-1 (98%), typical 85%
• elite · Underdog top 10 in offensive rebounding + Home favourite + Favorite holds (game tag) → fav_win: 42-0 (100%), typical 86%
• near · Underdog bottom 10 in shooting (eFG%) + Line moved 1.5+ toward the favourite + Blowout brewing (game tag) → fav_win: 41-0 (100%), typical 87%
• elite · Underdog bottom 10 in defensive rebounding + Favourite with 2+ days off + Blowout brewing (game tag) → fav_win: 32-0 (100%), typical 86%
• elite · Favourite winning 60%+ of its games + Visitor playing at altitude (Denver / Utah) + Spread 0–3 → dog_win: 13-1 (93%), typical 46%

Player outlook badges (2025-26, held out)

• high pts: 369-212 (64%), typical 46% — kept
• low pts: 303-127 (70%), typical 54% — kept
• high reb: 190-121 (61%), typical 46% — kept
• low reb: 175-100 (64%), typical 54% — kept
• high ast: 132-70 (65%), typical 44% — kept
• low ast: 738-410 (64%), typical 56% — kept
• high tpm: 109-91 (55%), typical 44% — 2025-26 hit rate 54.5% under 55%
• low tpm: 576-350 (62%), typical 56% — kept
• high pra: 314-163 (66%), typical 47% — kept
• low pra: 153-59 (72%), typical 53% — kept
• high stocks: 58-47 (55%), typical 43% — kept
• low stocks: 748-486 (61%), typical 57% — kept

Trends · Methodology

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.