Grizzlies vs Jazz Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 26, 2026 prediction: Utah Jazz over the Grizzlies by 0.6 points, a 52% win probability, with a projected final of Grizzlies 116, Jazz 117 (total 232.6). Against the spread the model leans Grizzlies +1.5: its margin is 0.9 points less favourable to Jazz than the market's. On the total the model leans under 237.5 (projection 232.6).
The model projects Utah Jazz to win by 0.6 points (52% win probability), projected score UTA 117, MEM 116, total 232.6 (80% range 209–256). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.5 points toward MEM).
Matchup
Memphis Grizzlies rank 21 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−2.3 points against an average opponent, about 36 projected wins in 2026-27); Utah Jazz rank 24 (−4.2, about 31 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.9 points to Memphis Grizzlies; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.6-point margin above. A 52% win probability means Utah Jazz should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (UTA margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.4 (UTA margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.5 (UTA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.3 (UTA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.4 (UTA margin)
Rest and travel
MEM: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 532 miles of travel, at altitude. UTA: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
MEM: Ty Jerome 28, Cameron Boozer 25, Cedric Coward 24, Jaylen Wells 23, Jerami Grant 20, Quinten Post 20, Isaiah Stewart 18, Scotty Pippen Jr. 17, Cam Spencer 16.
UTA: Lauri Markkanen 30, Jaxson Hayes 29, Jaren Jackson Jr. 27, Keyonte George 26, Darryn Peterson 24, Ace Bailey 22, Svi Mykhailiuk 15, Brice Sensabaugh 15, Isaiah Collier 14.
Four factors
| MEM (2025-26) | UTA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 109.9 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 115.6 | 119.2 |
| Pace | 104.1 | 104.9 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.251 | 0.277 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 57.8% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 26, 2026 · Utah Jazz · Memphis Grizzlies · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.