Grizzlies vs Raptors Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors · Mon, Nov 9, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 9, 2026 prediction: Toronto Raptors over the Grizzlies by 7.1 points, a 72% win probability, with a projected final of Grizzlies 111, Raptors 118 (total 228.1).

The model projects Toronto Raptors to win by 7.1 points (72% win probability), projected score TOR 118, MEM 111, total 228.1 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.3 points toward TOR).

Matchup

Memphis Grizzlies rank 21 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−2.3 points against an average opponent, about 36 projected wins in 2026-27); Toronto Raptors rank 10 (+2.3, about 47 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.6 points to Toronto Raptors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 7.1-point margin above. A 72% win probability means Toronto Raptors should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (TOR margin)
• Player box-score production: +2.3 (TOR margin)
• Player on-court impact: +0.5 (TOR margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.8 (TOR margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.8 (TOR margin)

Rest and travel

MEM: 2 day(s) of rest, 817 miles of travel. TOR: 2 day(s) of rest, 431 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

MEM: Ty Jerome 30, Cameron Boozer 26, Cedric Coward 24, Jaylen Wells 24, Jerami Grant 20, Scotty Pippen Jr. 18, Cam Spencer 17, Quinten Post 16, Isaiah Stewart 15.

TOR: RJ Barrett 29, Scottie Barnes 29, Immanuel Quickley 27, Ja'Kobe Walter 26, Jakob Poeltl 24, Jamal Shead 21, Collin Murray-Boyles 18, Kawhi Leonard 16, Malachi Smith 14.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 9, 2026 · Toronto Raptors · Memphis Grizzlies · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.