Jazz vs Pelicans Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans · Wed, Nov 4, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 4, 2026 prediction: New Orleans Pelicans over the Jazz by 2.9 points, a 60% win probability, with a projected final of Jazz 115, Pelicans 118 (total 233.0).

The model projects New Orleans Pelicans to win by 2.9 points (60% win probability), projected score NOP 118, UTA 115, total 233.0 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is player box-score production (1.5 points toward NOP).

Matchup

Utah Jazz rank 24 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.2 points against an average opponent, about 31 projected wins in 2026-27); New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 (−2.3, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.9 points to New Orleans Pelicans; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.9-point margin above. A 60% win probability means New Orleans Pelicans should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (NOP margin)
• Player box-score production: +1.5 (NOP margin)
• Player on-court impact: +0.1 (NOP margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.3 (NOP margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +0.4 (NOP margin)

Rest and travel

UTA: 1 day(s) of rest, 503 miles of travel. NOP: 1 day(s) of rest, 359 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

UTA: Lauri Markkanen 32, Jaren Jackson Jr. 28, Jaxson Hayes 26, Keyonte George 25, Darryn Peterson 24, Ace Bailey 21, Brice Sensabaugh 16, Svi Mykhailiuk 15, Isaiah Collier 14.

NOP: Trey Murphy III 29, Dejounte Murray 27, Zion Williamson 27, Saddiq Bey 21, Jeremiah Fears 21, Derik Queen 21, Jordan Poole 16, Bennedict Mathurin 16, Herbert Jones 15.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 4, 2026 · New Orleans Pelicans · Utah Jazz · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.