Kings vs Mavericks Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks · Mon, Nov 2, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 2, 2026 prediction: Dallas Mavericks over the Kings by 2.5 points, a 58% win probability, with a projected final of Kings 114, Mavericks 116 (total 230.0).

The model projects Dallas Mavericks to win by 2.5 points (58% win probability), projected score DAL 116, SAC 114, total 230.0 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (1.1 points toward DAL).

Matchup

Sacramento Kings rank 30 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−6.5 points against an average opponent, about 24 projected wins in 2026-27); Dallas Mavericks rank 29 (−5.8, about 27 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.7 points to Dallas Mavericks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.5-point margin above. A 58% win probability means Dallas Mavericks should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (DAL margin)
• Player box-score production: +0.1 (DAL margin)
• Player on-court impact: +0.6 (DAL margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.1 (DAL margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.1 (DAL margin)

Rest and travel

SAC: 1 day(s) of rest, 420 miles of travel. DAL: 2 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

SAC: Domantas Sabonis 33, Zach LaVine 32, Precious Achiuwa 30, Darius Acuff Jr. 29, De'Andre Hunter 23, Keegan Murray 16, Daeqwon Plowden 16, Emanuel Sharp 13, Malik Monk 12.

DAL: P.J. Washington 29, Max Christie 27, Zaccharie Risacher 25, Naji Marshall 24, Santi Aldama 24, Marcus Sasser 21, Daniel Gafford 18, Kyrie Irving 15, Cooper Flagg 14.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 2, 2026 · Dallas Mavericks · Sacramento Kings · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.