Kings vs Pelicans Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans · Thu, Oct 29, 2026

HoopVantage's Oct 29, 2026 prediction: New Orleans Pelicans over the Kings by 3.7 points, a 62% win probability, with a projected final of Kings 114, Pelicans 118 (total 231.2).

The model projects New Orleans Pelicans to win by 3.7 points (62% win probability), projected score NOP 118, SAC 114, total 231.2 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.1 points toward NOP).

Matchup

Sacramento Kings rank 30 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−6.5 points against an average opponent, about 24 projected wins in 2026-27); New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 (−2.3, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.2 points to New Orleans Pelicans; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.7-point margin above. A 62% win probability means New Orleans Pelicans should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (NOP margin)
• Player box-score production: +3.1 (NOP margin)
• Player on-court impact: +1.0 (NOP margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (NOP margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: −1.3 (NOP margin)

Rest and travel

SAC: 1 day(s) of rest, 503 miles of travel. NOP: second night of a back-to-back.

Projected minutes

SAC: Domantas Sabonis 34, Precious Achiuwa 34, Zach LaVine 33, Darius Acuff Jr. 30, De'Andre Hunter 26, Daeqwon Plowden 17, Emanuel Sharp 14, Leaky Black 13, Jonathan Mogbo 12.

NOP: Trey Murphy III 28, Dejounte Murray 27, Zion Williamson 27, Derik Queen 25, Saddiq Bey 21, Jeremiah Fears 20, DeAndre Jordan 18, Jordan Poole 16, Bennedict Mathurin 16.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Oct 29, 2026 · New Orleans Pelicans · Sacramento Kings · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.