Mavericks vs Spurs Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs · Wed, Nov 4, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 4, 2026 prediction: San Antonio Spurs over the Mavericks by 14.6 points, a 89% win probability, with a projected final of Mavericks 107, Spurs 122 (total 228.6).

The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 14.6 points (89% win probability), projected score SAS 122, DAL 107, total 228.6 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is player on-court impact (5.8 points toward SAS).

Matchup

Dallas Mavericks rank 29 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.8 points against an average opponent, about 27 projected wins in 2026-27); San Antonio Spurs rank 1 (+7.3, about 59 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 13.1 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 14.6-point margin above. A 89% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 9 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (SAS margin)
• Player box-score production: +4.6 (SAS margin)
• Player on-court impact: +5.8 (SAS margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +2.8 (SAS margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +0.7 (SAS margin)

Rest and travel

DAL: 1 day(s) of rest, 252 miles of travel. SAS: 1 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

DAL: P.J. Washington 29, Max Christie 27, Zaccharie Risacher 25, Naji Marshall 24, Santi Aldama 24, Marcus Sasser 21, Daniel Gafford 18, Kyrie Irving 15, Cooper Flagg 14.

SAS: Devin Vassell 29, Victor Wembanyama 28, De'Aaron Fox 27, Tobias Harris 27, Dylan Harper 27, Stephon Castle 26, Julian Champagnie 24, Keldon Johnson 18, Luke Kornet 12.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 4, 2026 · San Antonio Spurs · Dallas Mavericks · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.