Nuggets vs Pelicans Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans · Wed, Oct 28, 2026

HoopVantage's Oct 28, 2026 prediction: Denver Nuggets over the Pelicans by 3.7 points, a 62% win probability, with a projected final of Nuggets 117, Pelicans 113 (total 230.3).

The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 3.7 points (62% win probability), projected score NOP 113, DEN 117, total 230.3 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.9 points toward DEN).

Matchup

Denver Nuggets rank 8 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.9 points against an average opponent, about 49 projected wins in 2026-27); New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 (−2.3, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.2 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.7-point margin above. A 62% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (NOP margin)
• Player box-score production: −0.6 (NOP margin)
• Player on-court impact: −3.9 (NOP margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.0 (NOP margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.1 (NOP margin)

Rest and travel

DEN: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,081 miles of travel. NOP: 3 day(s) of rest, 1,081 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

DEN: Jamal Murray 33, Aaron Gordon 31, Christian Braun 31, Nikola Jokic 30, DeMar DeRozan 23, Trevon Brazile 21, Cam Whitmore 13, Alpha Diallo 12, Marvin Bagley III 12.

NOP: Trey Murphy III 28, Dejounte Murray 27, Zion Williamson 27, Derik Queen 25, Saddiq Bey 21, Jeremiah Fears 20, DeAndre Jordan 18, Jordan Poole 16, Bennedict Mathurin 16.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Oct 28, 2026 · New Orleans Pelicans · Denver Nuggets · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.