Nuggets vs Rockets Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets · Mon, Nov 9, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 9, 2026 prediction: Houston Rockets over the Nuggets by 1.6 points, a 55% win probability, with a projected final of Nuggets 113, Rockets 114 (total 226.7).

The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 1.6 points (55% win probability), projected score HOU 114, DEN 113, total 226.7 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is home court (0.6 points toward HOU).

Matchup

Denver Nuggets rank 8 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.9 points against an average opponent, about 49 projected wins in 2026-27); Houston Rockets rank 6 (+3.5, about 52 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.6 points to Houston Rockets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.6-point margin above. A 55% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (HOU margin)
• Player box-score production: +0.4 (HOU margin)
• Player on-court impact: +0.1 (HOU margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.1 (HOU margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +0.4 (HOU margin)

Rest and travel

DEN: 1 day(s) of rest, 752 miles of travel. HOU: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,015 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

DEN: Jamal Murray 33, Nikola Jokic 31, Christian Braun 30, Aaron Gordon 30, DeMar DeRozan 22, Trevon Brazile 20, Cam Whitmore 12, Alpha Diallo 11, Marvin Bagley III 11.

HOU: Amen Thompson 32, Alperen Sengun 32, Kevin Durant 30, Jabari Smith Jr. 29, Reed Sheppard 22, Fred VanVleet 19, Tari Eason 18, Marcus Smart 15, Bogdan Bogdanovic 13.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 9, 2026 · Houston Rockets · Denver Nuggets · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.