Pacers vs Bucks Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 26, 2026 prediction: Indiana Pacers over the Bucks by 0.4 points, a 51% win probability, with a projected final of Pacers 116, Bucks 115 (total 231.2). Against the spread the model leans Bucks +4.5: its margin is 4.1 points more favourable to Bucks than the market's. On the total the model leans under 240.5 (projection 231.2).
The model projects Indiana Pacers to win by 0.4 points (51% win probability), projected score MIL 115, IND 116, total 231.2 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (2.2 points toward MIL).
Matchup
Indiana Pacers rank 17 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.4 points against an average opponent, about 38 projected wins in 2026-27); Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 (−4.7, about 28 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.3 points to Indiana Pacers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.4-point margin above. A 51% win probability means Indiana Pacers should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (MIL margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.4 (MIL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.8 (MIL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.0 (MIL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +2.2 (MIL margin)
Rest and travel
IND: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 735 miles of travel. MIL: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 694 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
IND: Tyrese Haliburton 32, Andrew Nembhard 32, Kelly Oubre Jr. 24, Pascal Siakam 24, Aaron Nesmith 22, Quenton Jackson 18, Obi Toppin 18, Jarace Walker 15, Ivica Zubac 15.
MIL: Tyler Herro 28, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27, Kyle Kuzma 26, Ryan Rollins 25, Myles Turner 22, Kasparas Jakucionis 22, AJ Green 18, Kel'el Ware 16, Cormac Ryan 13.
Four factors
| IND (2025-26) | MIL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.3 | 110.3 |
| DRtg | 116 | 116.5 |
| Pace | 103.4 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 21.1% |
| FT rate | 0.252 | 0.223 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 55.8% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 26, 2026 · Milwaukee Bucks · Indiana Pacers · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.