Pacers vs Grizzlies Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies · Wed, Nov 4, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 4, 2026 prediction: Memphis Grizzlies over the Pacers by 1.4 points, a 55% win probability, with a projected final of Pacers 115, Grizzlies 116 (total 231.0).

The model projects Memphis Grizzlies to win by 1.4 points (55% win probability), projected score MEM 116, IND 115, total 231.0 (80% range 207–255). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (1.6 points toward MEM).

Matchup

Indiana Pacers rank 17 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.4 points against an average opponent, about 38 projected wins in 2026-27); Memphis Grizzlies rank 21 (−2.3, about 36 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.9 points to Indiana Pacers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.4-point margin above. A 55% win probability means Memphis Grizzlies should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (MEM margin)
• Player box-score production: −1.2 (MEM margin)
• Player on-court impact: +0.9 (MEM margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.5 (MEM margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.6 (MEM margin)

Rest and travel

IND: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 384 miles of travel. MEM: 1 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

IND: Andrew Nembhard 31, Tyrese Haliburton 31, Pascal Siakam 24, Kelly Oubre Jr. 24, Aaron Nesmith 21, Obi Toppin 18, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 18, Jarace Walker 16.

MEM: Ty Jerome 30, Cameron Boozer 26, Cedric Coward 24, Jaylen Wells 24, Jerami Grant 20, Scotty Pippen Jr. 18, Cam Spencer 17, Quinten Post 16, Isaiah Stewart 15.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 4, 2026 · Memphis Grizzlies · Indiana Pacers · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.