Pacers vs Mavericks Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks · Mon, Nov 9, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 9, 2026 prediction: Indiana Pacers over the Mavericks by 5.7 points, a 68% win probability, with a projected final of Pacers 118, Mavericks 113 (total 231.2).

The model projects Indiana Pacers to win by 5.7 points (68% win probability), projected score DAL 113, IND 118, total 231.2 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.4 points toward IND).

Matchup

Indiana Pacers rank 17 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.4 points against an average opponent, about 38 projected wins in 2026-27); Dallas Mavericks rank 29 (−5.8, about 27 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.4 points to Indiana Pacers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.7-point margin above. A 68% win probability means Indiana Pacers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (DAL margin)
• Player box-score production: −2.4 (DAL margin)
• Player on-court impact: −1.4 (DAL margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.6 (DAL margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: −1.9 (DAL margin)

Rest and travel

IND: 1 day(s) of rest, 936 miles of travel. DAL: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.

Projected minutes

IND: Andrew Nembhard 31, Tyrese Haliburton 31, Pascal Siakam 24, Kelly Oubre Jr. 24, Aaron Nesmith 21, Obi Toppin 18, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 18, Jarace Walker 16.

DAL: P.J. Washington 29, Max Christie 27, Zaccharie Risacher 25, Naji Marshall 24, Santi Aldama 24, Marcus Sasser 21, Daniel Gafford 18, Kyrie Irving 15, Cooper Flagg 14.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 9, 2026 · Dallas Mavericks · Indiana Pacers · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.