Pelicans vs Warriors Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
HoopVantage's Nov 9, 2026 prediction: Golden State Warriors over the Pelicans by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability, with a projected final of Pelicans 114, Warriors 117 (total 230.5).
The model projects Golden State Warriors to win by 3.5 points (62% win probability), projected score GSW 117, NOP 114, total 230.5 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (3.2 points toward GSW).
Matchup
New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−2.3 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Golden State Warriors rank 22 (−2.7, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.4 points to New Orleans Pelicans; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.5-point margin above. A 62% win probability means Golden State Warriors should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (GSW margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.4 (GSW margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.8 (GSW margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (GSW margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +3.2 (GSW margin)
Rest and travel
NOP: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 348 miles of travel. GSW: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
NOP: Trey Murphy III 29, Dejounte Murray 27, Zion Williamson 27, Saddiq Bey 21, Jeremiah Fears 21, Derik Queen 21, Jordan Poole 16, Bennedict Mathurin 16, Herbert Jones 15.
GSW: Yaxel Lendeborg 31, Gui Santos 23, De'Anthony Melton 22, Brandin Podziemski 20, Georges Niang 19, Brandon Williams 17, Will Richard 17, Draymond Green 17, Stephen Curry 16.
Four factors
| NOP (2025-26) | GSW (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111.3 | 112 |
| DRtg | 115.6 | 112.6 |
| Pace | 103.2 | 101.7 |
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 25.8% |
| FT rate | 0.284 | 0.238 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 55.3% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 9, 2026 · Golden State Warriors · New Orleans Pelicans · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.