Raptors vs Bucks Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks · Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play

HoopVantage's Nov 6, 2026 prediction: Toronto Raptors over the Bucks by 5.2 points, a 67% win probability, with a projected final of Raptors 117, Bucks 111 (total 227.9).

The model projects Toronto Raptors to win by 5.2 points (67% win probability), projected score MIL 111, TOR 117, total 227.9 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.6 points toward TOR).

Matchup

Toronto Raptors rank 10 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.3 points against an average opponent, about 47 projected wins in 2026-27); Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 (−4.7, about 28 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 7.0 points to Toronto Raptors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.2-point margin above. A 67% win probability means Toronto Raptors should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (MIL margin)
• Player box-score production: −2.6 (MIL margin)
• Player on-court impact: −2.2 (MIL margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −2.4 (MIL margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.3 (MIL margin)

Rest and travel

TOR: 1 day(s) of rest, 913 miles of travel. MIL: 1 day(s) of rest, 856 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

TOR: RJ Barrett 29, Scottie Barnes 29, Immanuel Quickley 27, Ja'Kobe Walter 26, Jakob Poeltl 24, Jamal Shead 21, Collin Murray-Boyles 18, Kawhi Leonard 16, Malachi Smith 14.

MIL: Tyler Herro 29, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27, Kyle Kuzma 26, Ryan Rollins 26, Kasparas Jakucionis 22, Myles Turner 22, AJ Green 18, Kel'el Ware 16, Brayden Burries 13.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 6, 2026 · Milwaukee Bucks · Toronto Raptors · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.