Raptors vs Nuggets Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets · Wed, Nov 4, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 4, 2026 prediction: Denver Nuggets over the Raptors by 3.6 points, a 62% win probability, with a projected final of Raptors 112, Nuggets 115 (total 227.1).

The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 3.6 points (62% win probability), projected score DEN 115, TOR 112, total 227.1 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (2.3 points toward DEN).

Matchup

Toronto Raptors rank 10 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.3 points against an average opponent, about 47 projected wins in 2026-27); Denver Nuggets rank 8 (+2.9, about 49 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.6 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.6-point margin above. A 62% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (DEN margin)
• Player box-score production: +0.2 (DEN margin)
• Player on-court impact: +1.2 (DEN margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.7 (DEN margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +2.3 (DEN margin)

Rest and travel

TOR: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 838 miles of travel, at altitude. DEN: 1 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

TOR: RJ Barrett 29, Scottie Barnes 29, Immanuel Quickley 27, Ja'Kobe Walter 26, Jakob Poeltl 24, Jamal Shead 21, Collin Murray-Boyles 18, Kawhi Leonard 16, Malachi Smith 14.

DEN: Jamal Murray 33, Nikola Jokic 31, Christian Braun 30, Aaron Gordon 30, DeMar DeRozan 22, Trevon Brazile 20, Cam Whitmore 12, Alpha Diallo 11, Marvin Bagley III 11.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 4, 2026 · Denver Nuggets · Toronto Raptors · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.