Spurs vs Jazz Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz · Wed, Oct 28, 2026

HoopVantage's Oct 28, 2026 prediction: San Antonio Spurs over the Jazz by 9.5 points, a 79% win probability, with a projected final of Spurs 120, Jazz 111 (total 230.6).

The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 9.5 points (79% win probability), projected score UTA 111, SAS 120, total 230.6 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is player on-court impact (5.7 points toward SAS).

Matchup

San Antonio Spurs rank 1 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+7.3 points against an average opponent, about 59 projected wins in 2026-27); Utah Jazz rank 24 (−4.2, about 31 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 11.5 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 9.5-point margin above. A 79% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (UTA margin)
• Player box-score production: −3.6 (UTA margin)
• Player on-court impact: −5.7 (UTA margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −2.9 (UTA margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +2.2 (UTA margin)

Rest and travel

SAS: second night of a back-to-back, 1,090 miles of travel, at altitude. UTA: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights.

Projected minutes

SAS: Victor Wembanyama 36, Julian Champagnie 32, Devin Vassell 30, De'Aaron Fox 28, Dylan Harper 28, Stephon Castle 26, Keldon Johnson 24, Luke Kornet 12, Carter Bryant 7.

UTA: Lauri Markkanen 31, Jaxson Hayes 29, Jaren Jackson Jr. 27, Keyonte George 26, Darryn Peterson 24, Ace Bailey 22, Brice Sensabaugh 15, Svi Mykhailiuk 15, Isaiah Collier 14.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Oct 28, 2026 · Utah Jazz · San Antonio Spurs · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.