Spurs vs Trail Blazers Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers · Sat, Nov 7, 2026
HoopVantage's Nov 7, 2026 prediction: San Antonio Spurs over the Trail Blazers by 4.8 points, a 66% win probability, with a projected final of Spurs 116, Trail Blazers 111 (total 227.2).
The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 4.8 points (66% win probability), projected score POR 111, SAS 116, total 227.2 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.2 points toward SAS).
Matchup
San Antonio Spurs rank 1 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+7.3 points against an average opponent, about 59 projected wins in 2026-27); Portland Trail Blazers rank 14 (+1.3, about 44 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 6.0 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.8-point margin above. A 66% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (POR margin)
- Player box-score production: −2.0 (POR margin)
- Player on-court impact: −3.2 (POR margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.8 (POR margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.6 (POR margin)
Rest and travel
SAS: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 484 miles of travel. POR: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 827 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
SAS: Devin Vassell 29, Victor Wembanyama 28, De'Aaron Fox 27, Tobias Harris 27, Dylan Harper 27, Stephon Castle 26, Julian Champagnie 24, Keldon Johnson 18, Luke Kornet 12.
POR: Deni Avdija 28, Damian Lillard 27, Jrue Holiday 25, Ja Morant 24, Toumani Camara 24, Donovan Clingan 22, Sidy Cissoko 21, Scoot Henderson 20, Robert Williams III 18.
Four factors
| SAS (2025-26) | POR (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.6 | 111 |
| DRtg | 108.7 | 111.3 |
| Pace | 102.5 | 103.6 |
| eFG% | 55.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 31.3% |
| FT rate | 0.273 | 0.280 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 54.1% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 7, 2026 · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.