Timberwolves vs Rockets Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets · Wed, Nov 4, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 4, 2026 prediction: Houston Rockets over the Timberwolves by 2.9 points, a 60% win probability, with a projected final of Timberwolves 112, Rockets 115 (total 226.4).

The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 2.9 points (60% win probability), projected score HOU 115, MIN 112, total 226.4 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.2 points toward HOU).

Matchup

Minnesota Timberwolves rank 11 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.0 points against an average opponent, about 47 projected wins in 2026-27); Houston Rockets rank 6 (+3.5, about 52 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.5 points to Houston Rockets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.9-point margin above. A 60% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (HOU margin)
• Player box-score production: +1.0 (HOU margin)
• Player on-court impact: +1.2 (HOU margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.6 (HOU margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +0.7 (HOU margin)

Rest and travel

MIN: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,058 miles of travel. HOU: 1 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

MIN: Anthony Edwards 32, Rudy Gobert 31, Jaden McDaniels 27, Ayo Dosunmu 27, LaMelo Ball 24, Jonathan Kuminga 24, Terrence Shannon Jr. 22, Trey Lyles 14, Joan Beringer 12.

HOU: Amen Thompson 32, Alperen Sengun 32, Kevin Durant 30, Jabari Smith Jr. 29, Reed Sheppard 22, Fred VanVleet 19, Tari Eason 18, Marcus Smart 15, Bogdan Bogdanovic 13.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 4, 2026 · Houston Rockets · Minnesota Timberwolves · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.