Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
HoopVantage's Nov 2, 2026 prediction: Denver Nuggets over the Trail Blazers by 3.8 points, a 62% win probability, with a projected final of Trail Blazers 112, Nuggets 116 (total 227.9).
The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 3.8 points (62% win probability), projected score DEN 116, POR 112, total 227.9 (80% range 204–252). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (1.5 points toward DEN).
Matchup
Portland Trail Blazers rank 14 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+1.3 points against an average opponent, about 44 projected wins in 2026-27); Denver Nuggets rank 8 (+2.9, about 49 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.6 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.8-point margin above. A 62% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (DEN margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.0 (DEN margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.4 (DEN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.7 (DEN margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.5 (DEN margin)
Rest and travel
POR: 1 day(s) of rest, 370 miles of travel, at altitude. DEN: 2 day(s) of rest, 585 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
POR: Deni Avdija 28, Damian Lillard 27, Jrue Holiday 25, Ja Morant 24, Toumani Camara 24, Donovan Clingan 22, Sidy Cissoko 21, Scoot Henderson 20, Robert Williams III 18.
DEN: Jamal Murray 33, Nikola Jokic 31, Christian Braun 30, Aaron Gordon 30, DeMar DeRozan 22, Trevon Brazile 20, Cam Whitmore 12, Alpha Diallo 11, Marvin Bagley III 11.
Four factors
| POR (2025-26) | DEN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111 | 119.6 |
| DRtg | 111.3 | 114.5 |
| Pace | 103.6 | 100.8 |
| eFG% | 53.4% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 23.6% |
| FT rate | 0.280 | 0.294 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 54.3% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 2, 2026 · Denver Nuggets · Portland Trail Blazers · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.