Warriors vs Timberwolves Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 28, 2026 prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves over the Warriors by 6.2 points, a 70% win probability, with a projected final of Warriors 111, Timberwolves 117 (total 227.8).
The model projects Minnesota Timberwolves to win by 6.2 points (70% win probability), projected score MIN 117, GSW 111, total 227.8 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.8 points toward MIN).
Matchup
Golden State Warriors rank 22 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−2.7 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Minnesota Timberwolves rank 11 (+2.0, about 47 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.7 points to Minnesota Timberwolves; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 6.2-point margin above. A 70% win probability means Minnesota Timberwolves should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (MIN margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.4 (MIN margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.8 (MIN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.6 (MIN margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (MIN margin)
Rest and travel
GSW: 1 day(s) of rest, 698 miles of travel. MIN: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 630 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
GSW: Yaxel Lendeborg 29, De'Anthony Melton 22, Gui Santos 22, Brandin Podziemski 20, Charles Bassey 18, Georges Niang 18, Brandon Williams 17, Will Richard 17, Al Horford 17.
MIN: Anthony Edwards 32, Rudy Gobert 31, Jaden McDaniels 27, Ayo Dosunmu 27, LaMelo Ball 24, Jonathan Kuminga 24, Terrence Shannon Jr. 22, Trey Lyles 14, Joan Beringer 12.
Four factors
| GSW (2025-26) | MIN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112 | 113.8 |
| DRtg | 112.6 | 110.5 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 103.2 |
| eFG% | 54.9% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 25.7% |
| FT rate | 0.238 | 0.285 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 52.9% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 28, 2026 · Minnesota Timberwolves · Golden State Warriors · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.