Wizards vs Cavaliers Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 28, 2026 prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers over the Wizards by 9.5 points, a 79% win probability, with a projected final of Wizards 111, Cavaliers 120 (total 230.8).
The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 9.5 points (79% win probability), projected score CLE 120, WAS 111, total 230.8 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is player on-court impact (4.0 points toward CLE).
Matchup
Washington Wizards rank 27 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.9 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Cleveland Cavaliers rank 7 (+3.0, about 49 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 7.9 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 9.5-point margin above. A 79% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (CLE margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.0 (CLE margin)
- Player on-court impact: +4.0 (CLE margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.8 (CLE margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.1 (CLE margin)
Rest and travel
WAS: 1 day(s) of rest, 436 miles of travel. CLE: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
WAS: Anthony Davis 32, Trae Young 32, Kyshawn George 29, Bilal Coulibaly 25, Justin Champagnie 23, Tre Johnson 21, Alex Sarr 19, Bub Carrington 18, Deandre Ayton 13.
CLE: Evan Mobley 33, Donovan Mitchell 32, James Harden 31, Peyton Watson 27, Jarrett Allen 26, Mario Hezonja 23, Sam Merrill 20, Jaylon Tyson 18, Tyrese Proctor 8.
Four factors
| WAS (2025-26) | CLE (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.1 | 116.1 |
| DRtg | 119.6 | 112.1 |
| Pace | 104 | 102.6 |
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 26.9% |
| FT rate | 0.235 | 0.265 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 54.3% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 28, 2026 · Cleveland Cavaliers · Washington Wizards · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.