Wizards vs Hawks Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks · Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play
HoopVantage's Nov 6, 2026 prediction: Atlanta Hawks over the Wizards by 7.8 points, a 74% win probability, with a projected final of Wizards 112, Hawks 119 (total 231.1).
The model projects Atlanta Hawks to win by 7.8 points (74% win probability), projected score ATL 119, WAS 112, total 231.1 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.8 points toward ATL).
Matchup
Washington Wizards rank 27 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.9 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Atlanta Hawks rank 12 (+1.7, about 47 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 6.6 points to Atlanta Hawks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 7.8-point margin above. A 74% win probability means Atlanta Hawks should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (ATL margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.3 (ATL margin)
- Player on-court impact: +3.8 (ATL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +2.6 (ATL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.5 (ATL margin)
Rest and travel
WAS: 1 day(s) of rest, 543 miles of travel. ATL: 1 day(s) of rest, 543 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
WAS: Trae Young 33, Anthony Davis 30, Kyshawn George 27, Bilal Coulibaly 25, Tre Johnson 22, Justin Champagnie 22, Alex Sarr 19, Bub Carrington 18, Deandre Ayton 13.
ATL: Jalen Johnson 32, Onyeka Okongwu 27, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 26, Dyson Daniels 25, CJ McCollum 23, Aaron Wiggins 22, Luguentz Dort 20, Jock Landale 20, Kingston Flemings 15.
Four factors
| WAS (2025-26) | ATL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.1 | 113.3 |
| DRtg | 119.6 | 110.9 |
| Pace | 104 | 104.2 |
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 24.4% |
| FT rate | 0.235 | 0.234 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 54.6% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 6, 2026 · Atlanta Hawks · Washington Wizards · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.