Wizards vs Hornets Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 26, 2026 prediction: Charlotte Hornets over the Wizards by 4.0 points, a 63% win probability, with a projected final of Wizards 112, Hornets 116 (total 228.7). Against the spread the model leans Hornets -2.5: its margin is 1.5 points more favourable to Hornets than the market's. On the total the model sits on the market number (228.5).
The model projects Charlotte Hornets to win by 4.0 points (63% win probability), projected score CHA 116, WAS 112, total 228.7 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.6 points toward CHA).
Matchup
Washington Wizards rank 27 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.9 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Charlotte Hornets rank 19 (−1.5, about 39 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.4 points to Charlotte Hornets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.0-point margin above. A 63% win probability means Charlotte Hornets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (CHA margin)
- Player box-score production: −2.0 (CHA margin)
- Player on-court impact: +2.6 (CHA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.6 (CHA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.2 (CHA margin)
Rest and travel
WAS: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 589 miles of travel. CHA: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
WAS: Anthony Davis 32, Trae Young 32, Kyshawn George 28, Bilal Coulibaly 24, Justin Champagnie 23, Tre Johnson 21, Alex Sarr 19, Bub Carrington 18, Deandre Ayton 13.
CHA: Dennis Schroder 31, Grayson Allen 30, Brandon Miller 29, Sion James 27, Naz Reid 25, Moussa Diabate 23, Ryan Kalkbrenner 15, Royce O'Neale 15, Tidjane Salaun 14.
Four factors
| WAS (2025-26) | CHA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.1 | 115.7 |
| DRtg | 119.6 | 110.9 |
| Pace | 104 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 30.5% |
| FT rate | 0.235 | 0.244 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 54.0% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 26, 2026 · Charlotte Hornets · Washington Wizards · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.