New York Mets at Washington Nationals projection, 2026-09-27

The model gives the New York Mets a 56% chance of beating the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park, with a projected score of NYM 5.1, WSH 4.2 and about 9.4 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.

Sean Manaea (LHP, NYM) projects to strike out 24.2% and put on 9.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .310 xwOBA against him. DJ Herz (LHP, WSH) projects to strike out 26.0% and put on 10.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings.

NYM's bullpen has 79% of its usual relief work rested (132 weighted pitches over the last three days); Nate Lavender is likely unavailable. WSH's bullpen has 83% of its usual relief work rested (158 weighted pitches over the last three days); Jake Irvin is likely unavailable.

Nationals Park plays 7% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 62°F with 14 mph wind; Jen Pawol has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for NYM the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for WSH the biggest factor is opposing starter (-5% to their expected runs).

New York Mets · Washington Nationals · Sean Manaea · DJ Herz

BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.