Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Toronto Blue Jays a 61% chance of beating the Cincinnati Reds at Rogers Centre, with a projected score of CIN 4.0, TOR 4.7 and about 8.6 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Nick Lodolo (LHP, CIN) projects to strike out 22.0% and put on 10.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .292 xwOBA against him. José Soriano (RHP, TOR) projects to strike out 22.1% and put on 11.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .312 xwOBA against him.
CIN's bullpen has 84% of its usual relief work rested (119 weighted pitches over the last three days); Zach McCambley is likely unavailable. TOR's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (42 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Rogers Centre plays 0% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 61°F with 6 mph wind; Adrian Johnson has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CIN the biggest factor is weather (-4% to their expected runs) and for TOR the biggest factor is weather (-4% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CIN 39% · TOR 61% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CIN 4.0 – 4.7 TOR |
| Projected total runs | 8.6 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| CIN starter | Nick Lodolo (LHP): projected 22.0% strikeouts, 10.3% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| TOR starter | José Soriano (RHP): projected 22.1% strikeouts, 11.6% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Rogers Centre (run factor -0.5%) |
Cincinnati Reds · Toronto Blue Jays · Nick Lodolo · José Soriano
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