Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Seattle Mariners a 60% chance of beating the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park, with a projected score of LAA 3.7, SEA 4.3 and about 8.0 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Ryan Johnson (RHP, LAA) projects to strike out 19.3% and put on 10.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .293 xwOBA against him. Kade Anderson (LHP, SEA) projects to strike out 21.6% and put on 7.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings.
LAA's bullpen has 61% of its usual relief work rested (107 weighted pitches over the last three days); Luke Murphy, Sam Bachman are likely unavailable. SEA's bullpen has 92% of its usual relief work rested (92 weighted pitches over the last three days); Troy Taylor is likely unavailable.
T-Mobile Park plays 10% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 58°F with 7 mph wind; Jansen Visconti has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for LAA the biggest factor is ballpark (-7% to their expected runs) and for SEA the biggest factor is ballpark (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAA 40% · SEA 60% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAA 3.7 – 4.3 SEA |
| Projected total runs | 8.0 |
| One-run game | 32% |
| LAA starter | Ryan Johnson (RHP): projected 19.3% strikeouts, 10.2% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| SEA starter | Kade Anderson (LHP): projected 21.6% strikeouts, 7.9% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| Ballpark | T-Mobile Park (run factor -9.8%) |
Los Angeles Angels · Seattle Mariners · Ryan Johnson · Kade Anderson
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