Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Seattle Mariners a 65% chance of beating the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park, with a projected score of LAA 3.0, SEA 4.0 and about 7.0 total runs. There is a 35% chance the game is decided by one run.
Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, LAA) projects to strike out 24.1% and put on 8.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .327 xwOBA against him. Logan Gilbert (RHP, SEA) projects to strike out 27.1% and put on 6.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .275 xwOBA against him.
LAA's bullpen has 79% of its usual relief work rested (103 weighted pitches over the last three days); Mitch Farris is likely unavailable. SEA's bullpen has 64% of its usual relief work rested (139 weighted pitches over the last three days); Michael Rucker is likely unavailable.
T-Mobile Park plays 10% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 59°F with 11 mph wind; Dillon Wilson has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for LAA the biggest factor is opposing starter (-11% to their expected runs) and for SEA the biggest factor is weather (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAA 35% · SEA 65% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAA 3.0 – 4.0 SEA |
| Projected total runs | 7.0 |
| One-run game | 35% |
| LAA starter | Yusei Kikuchi (LHP): projected 24.1% strikeouts, 8.9% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| SEA starter | Logan Gilbert (RHP): projected 27.1% strikeouts, 6.6% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| Ballpark | T-Mobile Park (run factor -9.8%) |
Los Angeles Angels · Seattle Mariners · Yusei Kikuchi · Logan Gilbert
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