Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 76% chance of beating the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park, with a projected score of LAD 5.9, SF 3.1 and about 9.0 total runs. There is a 26% chance the game is decided by one run.
Tarik Skubal (LHP, LAD) projects to strike out 30.9% and put on 6.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .258 xwOBA against him. Yunior Marte (RHP, SF) projects to strike out 16.8% and put on 10.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings.
LAD's bullpen has 91% of its usual relief work rested (98 weighted pitches over the last three days). SF's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (48 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Oracle Park plays 5% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 63°F with 11 mph wind; Tripp Gibson has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for LAD the biggest factor is lineup quality (+16% to their expected runs) and for SF the biggest factor is opposing starter (-17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAD 76% · SF 24% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAD 5.9 – 3.1 SF |
| Projected total runs | 9.0 |
| One-run game | 26% |
| LAD starter | Tarik Skubal (LHP): projected 30.9% strikeouts, 6.0% walks + HBP, 5.8 innings |
| SF starter | Yunior Marte (RHP): projected 16.8% strikeouts, 10.1% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| Ballpark | Oracle Park (run factor -4.7%) |
Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants · Tarik Skubal · Yunior Marte
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