St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates projection, 2026-09-24
The model gives the Pittsburgh Pirates a 63% chance of beating the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park, with a projected score of STL 3.4, PIT 4.3 and about 7.7 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Kyle Leahy (RHP, STL) projects to strike out 21.3% and put on 8.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .325 xwOBA against him. Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT) projects to strike out 29.1% and put on 8.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .255 xwOBA against him.
STL's bullpen has 84% of its usual relief work rested (68 weighted pitches over the last three days). PIT's bullpen has 70% of its usual relief work rested (156 weighted pitches over the last three days); Antwone Kelly is likely unavailable.
PNC Park plays 1% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 61°F with 7 mph wind; Scott Barry has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for STL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-13% to their expected runs) and for PIT the biggest factor is weather (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | STL 37% · PIT 63% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | STL 3.4 – 4.3 PIT |
| Projected total runs | 7.7 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| STL starter | Kyle Leahy (RHP): projected 21.3% strikeouts, 8.2% walks + HBP, 4.2 innings |
| PIT starter | Paul Skenes (RHP): projected 29.1% strikeouts, 8.0% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| Ballpark | PNC Park (run factor +0.6%) |
St. Louis Cardinals · Pittsburgh Pirates · Kyle Leahy · Paul Skenes
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