Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Texas Rangers a 51% chance of beating the Minnesota Twins at Target Field, with a projected score of TEX 4.2, MIN 3.8 and about 8.0 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, TEX) projects to strike out 23.9% and put on 7.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .272 xwOBA against him. Bailey Ober (RHP, MIN) projects to strike out 21.3% and put on 7.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .323 xwOBA against him.
TEX's bullpen has 84% of its usual relief work rested (105 weighted pitches over the last three days); Trevor Williams is likely unavailable. MIN's bullpen has 84% of its usual relief work rested (52 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Target Field plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 62°F with 10 mph wind; David Rackley has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for TEX the biggest factor is weather (-6% to their expected runs) and for MIN the biggest factor is opposing starter (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TEX 51% · MIN 49% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TEX 4.2 – 3.8 MIN |
| Projected total runs | 8.0 |
| One-run game | 32% |
| TEX starter | Nathan Eovaldi (RHP): projected 23.9% strikeouts, 7.5% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| MIN starter | Bailey Ober (RHP): projected 21.3% strikeouts, 7.1% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Target Field (run factor +2%) |
Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins · Nathan Eovaldi · Bailey Ober
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