Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Miami Marlins a 51% chance of beating the Atlanta Braves at loanDepot park, with a projected score of ATL 4.6, MIA 4.4 and about 8.9 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
JR Ritchie (RHP, ATL) projects to strike out 22.0% and put on 13.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Janson Junk (RHP, MIA) projects to strike out 17.1% and put on 6.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .326 xwOBA against him.
ATL's bullpen has 73% of its usual relief work rested (144 weighted pitches over the last three days); Dylan Dodd, Victor Mederos are likely unavailable. MIA's bullpen has 68% of its usual relief work rested (142 weighted pitches over the last three days); Dax Fulton, Bradley Blalock are likely unavailable.
loanDepot park plays 2% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; James Jean has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for ATL the biggest factor is opposing starter (+5% to their expected runs) and for MIA the biggest factor is opposing starter (+5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | ATL 49% · MIA 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | ATL 4.6 – 4.4 MIA |
| Projected total runs | 8.9 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| ATL starter | JR Ritchie (RHP): projected 22.0% strikeouts, 13.5% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| MIA starter | Janson Junk (RHP): projected 17.1% strikeouts, 6.5% walks + HBP, 4.6 innings |
| Ballpark | loanDepot park (run factor -1.7%) |
Atlanta Braves · Miami Marlins · JR Ritchie · Janson Junk
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