Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals projection, 2026-09-25

The model gives the Cleveland Guardians a 51% chance of beating the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium, with a projected score of CLE 4.1, KC 3.8 and about 7.8 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.

Gavin Williams (RHP, CLE) projects to strike out 28.0% and put on 10.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .321 xwOBA against him. Noah Cameron (LHP, KC) projects to strike out 21.2% and put on 8.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .314 xwOBA against him.

CLE's bullpen has 69% of its usual relief work rested (169 weighted pitches over the last three days); Joey Cantillo is likely unavailable. KC's bullpen has 64% of its usual relief work rested (192 weighted pitches over the last three days); Spencer Bivens, Anthony Gose, Jose Cuas are likely unavailable.

Kauffman Stadium plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 65°F with 4 mph wind; Tom Hanahan has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for CLE the biggest factor is lineup quality (-4% to their expected runs) and for KC the biggest factor is opposing starter (-10% to their expected runs).

Cleveland Guardians · Kansas City Royals · Gavin Williams · Noah Cameron

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