Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals projection, 2026-09-24
The model gives the Chicago White Sox a 50% chance of beating the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium, with a projected score of CWS 4.9, KC 4.6 and about 9.5 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
David Sandlin (RHP, CWS) projects to strike out 22.6% and put on 9.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Randy Dobnak (RHP, KC) projects to strike out 16.1% and put on 9.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .364 xwOBA against him.
CWS's bullpen has 67% of its usual relief work rested (182 weighted pitches over the last three days); Hagen Smith, Sean Newcomb are likely unavailable. KC's bullpen has 81% of its usual relief work rested (108 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Kauffman Stadium plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 72°F with 4 mph wind; Todd Tichenor has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CWS the biggest factor is opposing starter (+9% to their expected runs) and for KC the biggest factor is opposing starter (+3% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CWS 50% · KC 50% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CWS 4.9 – 4.6 KC |
| Projected total runs | 9.5 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| CWS starter | David Sandlin (RHP): projected 22.6% strikeouts, 9.7% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| KC starter | Randy Dobnak (RHP): projected 16.1% strikeouts, 9.3% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| Ballpark | Kauffman Stadium (run factor +2.1%) |
Chicago White Sox · Kansas City Royals · David Sandlin · Randy Dobnak
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