Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Chicago White Sox a 58% chance of beating the Colorado Rockies at Rate Field, with a projected score of COL 4.5, CWS 5.0 and about 9.5 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
Kyle Freeland (LHP, COL) projects to strike out 16.9% and put on 6.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .342 xwOBA against him. Anthony Kay (LHP, CWS) projects to strike out 18.4% and put on 11.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings.
COL's bullpen has 75% of its usual relief work rested (127 weighted pitches over the last three days); Brennan Bernardino, Ryan Feltner are likely unavailable. CWS's bullpen has 76% of its usual relief work rested (152 weighted pitches over the last three days); Bryan Hudson is likely unavailable.
Rate Field plays 2% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 70°F with 6 mph wind; Dan Bellino has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for COL the biggest factor is opposing starter (+7% to their expected runs) and for CWS the biggest factor is team run form (+11% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | COL 42% · CWS 58% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | COL 4.5 – 5.0 CWS |
| Projected total runs | 9.5 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| COL starter | Kyle Freeland (LHP): projected 16.9% strikeouts, 6.5% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| CWS starter | Anthony Kay (LHP): projected 18.4% strikeouts, 11.4% walks + HBP, 4.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Rate Field (run factor -1.6%) |
Colorado Rockies · Chicago White Sox · Kyle Freeland · Anthony Kay
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