Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves projection, 2026-09-24
The model gives the Atlanta Braves a 63% chance of beating the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park, with a projected score of CIN 3.9, ATL 4.9 and about 8.9 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Brady Singer (RHP, CIN) projects to strike out 20.2% and put on 9.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .320 xwOBA against him. Tyler Mahle (RHP, ATL) projects to strike out 21.5% and put on 8.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .319 xwOBA against him.
CIN's bullpen has 84% of its usual relief work rested (68 weighted pitches over the last three days). ATL's bullpen has 80% of its usual relief work rested (99 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Truist Park plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 70°F with 8 mph wind; Junior Valentine has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CIN the biggest factor is team run form (-4% to their expected runs) and for ATL the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CIN 37% · ATL 63% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CIN 3.9 – 4.9 ATL |
| Projected total runs | 8.9 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| CIN starter | Brady Singer (RHP): projected 20.2% strikeouts, 9.9% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| ATL starter | Tyler Mahle (RHP): projected 21.5% strikeouts, 8.3% walks + HBP, 5.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Truist Park (run factor -0.6%) |
Cincinnati Reds · Atlanta Braves · Brady Singer · Tyler Mahle
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