Cavaliers vs Thunder Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
HoopVantage's Nov 4, 2026 prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Cavaliers by 5.5 points, a 68% win probability, with a projected final of Cavaliers 111, Thunder 116 (total 226.5).
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 5.5 points (68% win probability), projected score OKC 116, CLE 111, total 226.5 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.6 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Cleveland Cavaliers rank 7 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.0 points against an average opponent, about 49 projected wins in 2026-27); Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 (+7.0, about 60 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.0 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.5-point margin above. A 68% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (OKC margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.5 (OKC margin)
- Player on-court impact: +2.6 (OKC margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.0 (OKC margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.8 (OKC margin)
Rest and travel
CLE: 1 day(s) of rest, 950 miles of travel. OKC: 1 day(s) of rest, 950 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
CLE: Evan Mobley 33, Donovan Mitchell 32, James Harden 31, Peyton Watson 27, Jarrett Allen 26, Mario Hezonja 23, Sam Merrill 20, Jaylon Tyson 18, Tyrese Proctor 8.
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Jalen Williams 27, Chet Holmgren 25, Micah Peavy 24, Ajay Mitchell 22, Alex Caruso 20, Isaiah Hartenstein 19, Jared McCain 18, Cason Wallace 16.
Four factors
| CLE (2025-26) | OKC (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.1 | 116 |
| DRtg | 112.1 | 105.1 |
| Pace | 102.6 | 101.7 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 22.3% |
| FT rate | 0.265 | 0.261 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.9% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 4, 2026 · Oklahoma City Thunder · Cleveland Cavaliers · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.