Celtics vs Raptors Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors · Wed, Nov 11, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 11, 2026 prediction: Toronto Raptors over the Celtics by 2.7 points, a 59% win probability, with a projected final of Celtics 111, Raptors 114 (total 225.2).

The model projects Toronto Raptors to win by 2.7 points (59% win probability), projected score TOR 114, BOS 111, total 225.2 (80% range 202–249). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (3.2 points toward TOR).

Matchup

Boston Celtics rank 6 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.7 points against an average opponent, about 51 projected wins in 2026-27); Toronto Raptors rank 9 (+2.5, about 47 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.2 points to Boston Celtics; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.7-point margin above. A 59% win probability means Toronto Raptors should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (TOR margin)
• Player box-score production: +0.2 (TOR margin)
• Player on-court impact: −1.4 (TOR margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +3.2 (TOR margin)

Rest and travel

BOS: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 337 miles of travel. TOR: 1 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

BOS: Jayson Tatum 32, Derrick White 29, Paul George 28, Payton Pritchard 25, Sam Hauser 19, Jordan Walsh 17, Neemias Queta 17, Mitchell Robinson 16, Baylor Scheierman 16.

TOR: RJ Barrett 29, Scottie Barnes 29, Immanuel Quickley 27, Ja'Kobe Walter 26, Jamal Shead 21, Jakob Poeltl 20, Collin Murray-Boyles 19, Kawhi Leonard 16, Malachi Smith 14.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 11, 2026 · Toronto Raptors · Boston Celtics · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.